On April 20, at the G7 meeting, Anthony Blinken, the head of US diplomacy, accused China of being on the side of “the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War” with its support for Russia. reminds Chee Meng Tan.
It was also about Blinken’s visit to China last week. There, the top diplomat of the US said that China does not sell any weapons or ammunition to Russia at the request of the US, but does not put any obstacles in the way of other goods. These include semiconductors, drones, helmets, vests, machine tools and radios, writes Chee Meng Tan. According to the US, this kind of trade undermines Ukrainian security. Because of this, the United States is threatening to impose sanctions on the Chinese companies involved in the sale. Which would be painful for China.
“Why is Beijing so eager to help Moscow, even though looming US sanctions are likely to worsen its problems with an already weak economy? In one word: survival,” says Chee Meng Tan. According to him, China realizes that it needs Russia in the economic and influence struggle against the USA. She wouldn’t be able to survive such a clash on her own. “Besides requiring a strong Russia to help reform the US-dominated international system, China needs Russia for its long-term survival,” writes Chee Meng Tan.
Now the West is busy fighting Russia. But it is clear to China that if Russia falls or turns away, the struggle with the West will be left to it alone. “Right now the West is dealing with a Russian rogue state. But if Russia falls, Beijing realizes that the West could consolidate its resources to deal with the ‘Chinese threat’. Therefore, Beijing must help Moscow,” the author writes.
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He mentions that relations between Russia and China have not always been ideal. Although the joint statement of the Russian head of state and the Chinese head of state dated February 4, 2022 speaks of unwavering friendship without limits, frictions echo from history that can be prescribed to this day. The author was alluding to a short episode from 1961, when China and Russia clashed militarily, and they still have disputed territory from that time, on which both countries lay their claims. And that can seep into relationships even now.
In addition, Chee Meng Tan also mentions the US presidential election. If Trump wins the election, will Russia’s approach to China change? Will he give his trust to the West again? “For example, if the Trump presidency is restored, the US may show less support for Ukraine and improve relations with Russia. In such a scenario, the Kremlin may prioritize better relations with the West and deny support to China’s fight against the US,” the author argues.
North Korea is also playing its part in the whole chess game of world politics. According to the analyst, Russia and China are fighting over this. And China is concerned lest North Korea turn away from the Chinese regime and turn its sympathies to Russia. It would be a very awkward moment for China. Chee Meng Tan mentioned the visit of two high-ranking Chinese politicians to Korea. And this at a time when the trade in arms supplied to Russia is only flourishing. Is this a reason for jealousy between China and Russia? According to Chee Meng Tan, he can become one.
If only because North Korea looks at China with a certain resentment supported by the historical experience of being a Chinese vassal for many centuries. Chee Meng Tan also mentioned the conflict between North Korea and South Korea, when China behaved very contemptuously in support of the North Korean regime. China is afraid that the helm of the North Korean dictatorship will spill over in its sympathies to Russia.
“The fear is not unfounded. North Korea has a tradition of defying China. The defiance came in the form of the execution of Kim Jong-un’s pro-Chinese uncle, the assassination of Kim Jong-nam in Malaysia, or significant North Korean weapons tests. More importantly, Beijing fears that if North Korea becomes a full-fledged nuclear power, it might even detonate nuclear weapons on Chinese soil,” Chee Meng Tan reads world events, adding that Russia could support the development of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
According to analyst Chee Meng Tan, the visit of two prominent Chinese politicians to Pyongyang is very significant, and that the Chinese delegation was to reassure the North Korean dictator that China is unwavering in its support of the regime and society there. He notes that China sends technology to Russia also in order to prevent Russia from becoming dependent on weapons from Pyongyang.
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Ukraine (War in Ukraine)
Reports from the battlefield are difficult to verify in real time, regardless of whether they come from any side of the conflict. Both warring parties, for understandable reasons, may release completely or partially false (misleading) information.
PL editorial content discussing this conflict can be found on this page.
author: Marian Kučera
