The FT’s European intelligence sources believe that Russia will carry out these sabotages through its own forces and through intermediaries, with the Kremlin showing no interest in whether these actions result in civilian casualties. Agents in the service of Moscow have a long history of such operations, although in recent years they have carried them out rather sporadically. According to the Czech police, these include the explosions at the ammunition depots in Vrbětice from ten years ago.
However, the new operations of Kremlin agents will be more aggressive and more connected, according to the assessment of three European intelligence agencies. Therefore, representatives of these agencies began to warn the public about the impending danger. “We assess the risk of state-controlled sabotage as greatly increased,” said the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence service, Thomas Haldenwang.
According to Haldenwang, Russia apparently has no problem carrying out operations “with a high destructive potential” on European soil. He said this last month at a security conference held just two days after two German and Russian citizens were arrested in Bayreuth, Bavaria. They were accused of planning attacks on German military and logistics facilities. The possibility of Russian involvement is not ruled out even in the case of Friday’s fire in the Berlin factory of the Diehl arms factory, which supplies Ukraine.
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Foreign
At the end of April, two other men were accused of pro-Russian sabotage in Great Britain, who started a fire in a warehouse with supplies of aid to Ukraine. Swedish investigators, in turn, are linking a recent series of train derailments to state-sponsored sabotage. Czech Transport Minister Martin Kupka told the FT last month that Russia had also tried to destroy the signaling systems of Czech railways.
Estonia’s Internal Security Service links Russian operatives to the February attack on the cars of Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets and several journalists. France also warns against attacks on its military facilities by Russia. “The obvious conclusion is that Russian activity has really picked up,” said Keir Giles, a consultant at the Chatham House think tank.
“Whether this is a reflection of the fact that Russia is putting more resources into it, or whether they are being careless and getting caught, or whether Western counterintelligence has simply gotten better at detecting and stopping threats, you can’t tell. Whatever it is, there’s a lot going on,” Giles continued.
According to a high-ranking representative of an unnamed European government, information about a major coordinated “Russian mischief” is also being spread through NATO security services, the newspaper reported. The alliance addressed them publicly on Thursday, expressing deep concern over Russia’s growing “malign activities on allied territory”.
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Homemade
Cyber attacks and disinformation
These expressions of concern about the increase in Russian sabotage operations came at the same time as Russia’s accusations of cyberattacks on the institutions of several European states, including the Czech Republic and Germany. Furthermore, Moscow has long been blamed for its disinformation campaign, and the continent continues to be shaken by the scandal in which Russia tried to co-opt European far-right politicians before the European Parliament elections.
One intelligence official said Moscow’s sabotage operations should not be seen as separate from the rest. He considers the increase in Russian activity to be a manifestation of the intention to exert as much pressure as possible on all fronts. According to him, Putin is “encouraged” and will try to move European lines as much as possible.
Repair reputation
According to the paper, Russian intelligence officers have one more motivation to launch massive malicious operations, and that is the desire to repair their own reputation. At the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it suffered the biggest blow since the fall of the Soviet Union, when over 600 Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover were expelled from Europe. This also limited the performance of the network of Kremlin spies.
According to analysts of the British Institute of the Royal Combined Services, Russia at least partially replaced these losses through intermediaries. These are mainly either members of the Russian diaspora or organized crime groups with which the Kremlin has long-term ties.
The change in strategy was also brought about by the so-called “Special Influence Commission”, which coordinates intelligence operations in individual countries for the Kremlin. Before their introduction, Russian operations were led by individual wayward security services or Kremlin officials.
After the night Russian attack on Kharkiv, five are injured, among them a child
The war in Ukraine
