Vaccination against covid and birth rate! A mathematician puts together shocking data

Tomáš Fürst studied mathematical modeling at the Faculty of Mathematics and Physics of Charles University, and currently works at the Department of Mathematical Analysis and Applications of Mathematics at Palacky University in Olomouc. It also deals with data processing and machine learning. It is a fixed part of the Association of Microbiologists, Immunologists and Statisticians (SMIS), a professional association of specialists who, since the beginning of the covid measures, have debated at a professional level with an overwhelmingly prevailing approach to the solution.

List News published the interview with demographer Jitka Slaba, who also works at the SYRI institute. They published the interview under a bold headline Fewer children were born. But one can also see positives in it, says the expert. What positive can this be? For example, when there are fewer children, places in schools and kindergartens will be freed up in the future. Was the covid vaccination mentioned in the interview? Not.

“Jitka Slabá says in the interview that it is not really clear why this happened. This is quite a shift from the past, when Czech demographers unabashedly claimed that the decline is completely explained by changes in the demographic composition of the population and especially by the fact that 2021 was a record year in terms of fertility. Czech women therefore ‘pre-birth’ some children, which is why a decline is observed in the following years,” Tomáš Fürst wrote about it.

survey

Which of the top leaders do you have the most confidence in?

voted: 28577 people

But he refutes this by pointing to text by colleague from SMIS Ondřej Vencálek, which points to the census of people, houses and apartments in 2021. Vencálek proves that the number of women in the fertile period is estimated by the state. And during the census, it will actually be discovered how much the state was wrong in its estimates. He was wrong by 3.5% before 2021. The result thus optically increased the birth rate, but there was no actual increase in the birth rate. “In the years immediately preceding, the estimate of the number of women of reproductive age was slightly overestimated, and the total fertility was therefore slightly underestimated,” wrote Vencálek. It follows that women did not “pre-birth” their children in 2021. “I have already expressed my astonishment several times over the fact that the professors, doctors and associate professors of demography were not surprised that the ‘record fertility’ of 2021 was not reflected in the number of children born. Well, from the point of view of modern science, logic is apparently a bourgeois survival,” Tomáš Fürst wrote with irony.

Then we read on the hard numbers data, that since 2006, well over a hundred thousand children have been born in the Czech Republic every year. In 2023, the first post-covid year, 92 thousand children were born. So there was a jump in the birth rate by 10%.

Demographers and sociologists from SYRI are searching in vain for the reasons for the significantly reduced birth rate, with the generous support of the media, Tomáš Fürst shows the data he obtained on the basis of the Act on Access to Information from the Institute of Health Information and Statistics (ÚZIS). And he presented the results. “In the first half of 2021, vaccinated mothers conceived dramatically fewer pregnancies than would correspond to their fraction of the population. However, even after the proportion of vaccinated women of childbearing age stabilized at around 2/3 at the end of 2021, the number of pregnancies that occurred among vaccinated women was significantly lower than among unvaccinated women,” the mathematician explains using data from the ÚZIS.

survey

Is our state working well? Are you satisfied with the authorities, healthcare, social services, etc.?

voted: 31504 people

“The number of pregnancies of unvaccinated women stabilized in 2022 at approximately the values we saw for the entire population in the pre-covid era, while vaccinated women showed significantly fewer pregnancies,” explains ÚZIS data Tomáš Fürst and also refers to vaccinated women. “In simple terms, we can say that the children we are missing from January 2022 are children who, for some reason, were not born to vaccinated mothers. Unvaccinated mothers are in normal numbers.”

Then the mathematician notices a direct connection between the time of vaccination and the drop in the birth rate, when he proves that the birth rate began to decrease from the ninth month after its mass application, for example at Prague Central Station or in shopping centers. “Furthermore, the decline in births occurred about nine months after the proportion of vaccinated women of childbearing age rose rapidly. In May 2021 alone, a quarter of the observed population of women between the ages of 18 and 39 was vaccinated. In addition, a similar decline in the birth rate can be seen in many neighboring states,” the mathematician explains.

“However, fully aware of the seriousness of the following lines, we declare that the above analyzes show in favor of the hypothesis that vaccination against covid has a causal connection with the decline in fertility of Czech women,” writes Tomáš Fürst in conclusion. And he marvels that such findings, or even suspicions, should lead to data sets being opened up for both experts and the public to review. If only to avoid, or confirm, what SMIS claims. The media should exercise their rights to information and show it to the public without distortion. Instead, we pretend that such a line of reasoning is toxic.

Tomáš Fürst also points out that, based on what we have learned, we should suspend further vaccinations and not apply them until all the facts are clarified. “In a society governed by reason, this finding should open up the datasets needed to analyze this problem in detail. “Until it is discussed and determined to what extent vaccination contributed to fertility, the recommendation to vaccinate women of childbearing age against covid should be cancelled,” concludes Tomáš Fürst