Fiala can quit as prime minister and start running Europe. But it has two conditions

The ČSSD lost the European elections in 2004, and the then Prime Minister Vladimír Špidla subsequently narrowly survived a parliamentary vote of no confidence. However, the leadership of his own party, the ČSSD, opposed the continuation of the existing coalition, and Špidla submitted his resignation.

“I failed (in the leadership of the ČSSD) to defend his concept of a coalition of 101 votes, based on the layout of the ČSSD, KDU-ČSL and US-DEU. Corresponding consequences flow from this in normal states and republics,” Špidl explained his resignation at the time. He resigned from both the head of the government and the ČSSD – and headed for the post of European Commissioner for the Czech Republic in Brussels.

The current main government party, the ODS, is predicted to fare worse than in the previous European elections in 2019. The Spolu coalition can win a total of around six MEP mandates and thus equalize with the ANO movement. Therefore, from the government’s point of view, it would not be a failure (even more so if the profit of the rest of the coalition of five, i.e. Pirates and STAN, were added).

However, the circle of familiar faces and the discipline of the people’s ranks could lead to the fact that only two of the six Spolu mandates will go to ODS representatives. Specifically, to the leader Alexander Vondr and the candidate duo Veronica Vrecionová (both are already members of the European Parliament).

Now the ODS has four MEPs. Her profit would thus be halved. On the contrary, this can be safely described as a failure. If you’re talking to party representatives off the record, the concerns are exactly that. Within the ODS, it would probably stir up thoughts and currents that are now in the background and that would like to change either the government coalition or their leader. Or both.

The pan-European reality can be completely different. The faction of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), to which the ODS belongs in the European Parliament, should significantly strengthen. It now has 68 members, after June it could have between 80 and 90. The party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloniová, who enjoys great popularity at home but also among other leaders, should deliver new mandates.

In the European Parliament, where it is decisive who holds the majority, a coalition of populists and socialists ruled for many years. Five years ago, this dual government ended, and the People’s Party and the Socialists had to add a third member to the party.

They took the European liberals. However, it is the liberals who are set to lose in these elections, to the extent that they are in the strategic position of the third strongest faction, which can be replaced by either the ECR or the extreme right-wing group Identity and Democracy (ID, Okamur’s SPD also belongs to it). However, other factions refuse to cooperate with ID, and its coalition potential is thus close to zero.

If the ECR were to rise to the position of a faction that would ensure a new majority, it would almost certainly get one of the EU’s “top jobs”, as these will also be newly filled. In other words, a representative of this faction would sit at the head of the European Commission, the European Council (that is, EU summits), the EU Parliament or lead European foreign policy.

It is already so now. The head of the European Commission is a populist, the president of the European Council is a liberal, the leader of the European Parliament was a socialist (after the death of David Sassoli, the right wing took over the post) and so on.

So let’s imagine that the ECR succeeds and needs to be rewarded like the Liberals were five years ago. He will not get the leadership of the most powerful institution, the European Commission. Nor does the Parliament, because the ECR does not want to strengthen its role in relation to other institutions.

But there is the Prime Minister’s European Council. It is a body of heads of state and government of the EU, who meet only a few times a year, but take major political decisions. The head of the European Council can only be a former prime minister, or president (now former Belgian prime minister Charles Michel).

Among the representatives of the ECR faction, Giorgie Meloniová will be chosen, but she reigns over Italy and will definitely not resign because of Europe. Then former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki from PiS, against whom Donald Tusk’s government will immediately oppose. And then Petr Fiala. Consensual, calm, with allies in old and new Europe and an uncertain situation at home. Who do you call to step down and go run Europe?

So if the ECR really succeeds and Prime Minister Fiala decides – either by himself or at the request of the ODS, or after a phone call from Europe – that it is time to give space to someone else at the head of the Czech government, nothing would end for him.

On the contrary. Fiala would be given the European “top job” and the era of assuming part of the responsibility for the EU would begin for the Czech Republic after twenty years of membership and at a time when the country is doing well internationally.

Spotlight: People should be proud of the government for two things. ANO is very nervous about them, says Dolejší (more HERE)