UConn vs. San Diego State expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament matchup

On paper, it would have been difficult for the country’s top-ranked team to truly impress during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament against 16 and 9 seeds. And yet, the Connecticut Huskies did just that, winning both games by a combined 56 points while shooting 53 percent from the field. Danny Hurley’s group never trailed and led by double digits in 68 of 80 possible minutes, looking every bit the part of a potential back-to-back title winner as it gears up for a rematch of last year’s national championship against San Diego State in the Sweet 16.

The Aztecs, who entered March Madness on shaky ground having lost three of five, slipped by UAB in Round 1 before easily disposing of Yale in the weekend’s final matchup. Their elite defense was on full display, limiting their two opponents to 38 percent shooting inside the arc. That defensive intensity anchored Brian Dutcher’s group to the national championship game a year ago, and they’ll need to ramp it up once again against a UConn team ranked second in the country in offensive efficiency.

The Huskies have myriad options on that end, with Cam Spencer (first), Donovan Clingan (17th), and Alex Karaban (31st) among the nation’s leaders in individual offensive efficiency. That list doesn’t even include senior Tristen Newton, the engine that makes this dynamic offense go, or star freshman Stephon Castle, who had 29 points over the weekend, his best two-game stretch since late January.

One sliver of hope against the 33-win Huskies is finding success from deep. Opponents shot 26 of 49 (53 percent) from deep in UConn’s small sample of three losses. Although San Diego State has the worst 3-point shooting offense of the remaining 16 teams, the Aztecs should have a little wave of confidence after making 14 of 27 (48 percent) against Yale. That included four makes from Lamont Butler, who made three 3-pointers in last year’s national championship game. If he and leading scorer Jaedon LeDee (45 percent from deep) can get hot, it may give the Aztecs a shot.

There’s a reason the Huskies are the biggest favorite among the Sweet 16 games. They’ve covered 11 of their last 13 spreads, seven of which were double digits. They’ve lost once since Christmas, they’re healthy, and they’re playing this game 90 minutes from campus. It’d take a monumental effort from the Aztecs to overcome college basketball’s best team. Then again, this year’s tournament is due for some madness, and San Diego State did knock off No. 1 seed Alabama a year ago on its way to the title game.