Arizona vs. Clemson expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

There were no surprises at the bottom half of the West bracket in the first round. The status quo was broken, though, when No. 6 Clemson upset No. 3 Baylor 72-64 in the second round, setting the stage for a matchup against the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats, who are favorites on Thursday.

It hasn’t been smooth for Clemson this season. They won the first nine games. Then the calendar hit January, and they lost five of eight. The roller coaster swung back up again, notching wins in six of eight, including avenging an earlier loss to North Carolina. Unfortunately, they got bounced early in the ACC tournament but stormed back in the NCAA Tournament with wins over No. 11 New Mexico and Baylor.

The defense has been great, holding New Mexico to 29.7 percent from the field and Baylor to 38.9 percent. On the season, they were 47th in effective field goal percentage defense, according to Bart Torvik.

Two anomalies manifested in the first two games for Clemson. PJ Hall led the team with 18.5 points per game on the season, but Chase Hunter was the leading scorer in the tournament with 21 and 20 points. Hall only played 19 minutes in both contests due to foul trouble. Secondly, Clemson has been one of the better rebounding teams, ranking 51st in defensive rebounding, per Bart Torvik — but New Mexico grabbed 17 offensive rebounds while Baylor snatched 11. Arizona was 20th in offensive rebounding.

That’s not the only thing Arizona does well. They are a No. 2 seed for many reasons. According to KenPom, Arizona was one of the most balanced teams in college basketball, ranking ninth in offense and 10th in defense. Looking at the Bart Torvik chart, there’s tons of green, but 3-point volume is light, while turnovers can be an issue.

Luckily for Arizona, Clemson is 340th in forcing turnovers. And they have no one to match up to 7-foot, 260-pound Oumar Ballo. Will Hall get into foul trouble again? Will Clemson have to pack it in, allowing Arizona to shoot 3-pointers? While the Wildcats don’t shoot many per game, they are 19th in conversion rate at 37.3 percent, according to KenPom.

Arizona is rightly favored in this matchup, but anything can happen in one game. The guard play for Arizona has been erratic at times and Clemson is ninth-best in free-throw percentage.

How to watch Arizona vs. Clemson

What: West Region, Sweet 16

Tip off time: 7:09 p.m. ET Thursday

TV: CBS

Location: Los Angeles

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Arizona vs. Clemson odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live.

Expert picks

Projected score

Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the outcome of each game in the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here are Austin’s projections for the Arizona vs. Clemson point spread and total:

Projected final score: Arizona 81.3, Clemson 73.3

Projected total points: 154.5

See Austin Mock’s full Sweet 16 projections.

Players to watch

Arizona

Caleb Love, senior guard, Pac-12 Player of the Year, first-team All-Pac 12
Oumar Ballo, redshirt senior center, first-team All-Pac 12, All-Pac-12 defensive team
Pelle Larsson, senior guard, second-team All-Pac 12