Morning window – Today inflation in the Eurozone and the ADP survey

Morning window – Today inflation in the Eurozone and the ADP survey
Morning window – Today inflation in the Eurozone and the ADP survey
The main economic event of the day will be the public water estimate no new inflation in euro. In a month-to-month comparison, the price level should rise by 0.9% according to the market. The average rate should decrease slightly from 2.6% to 2.5% compared to Norway. Core inflation is also estimated to drop by one-tenth, but it should still hover around 3%, which is still unacceptably high for the ECB. According to Eurostat, issue norms unemploymentwhich should remain at around 6.4%, i.e. at a historically low level.

From the United States of America, the first stop is the job market there changes in job vacancies according to the ADP agency. Their survey should indicate that the labor market is even more tense, when the market predicts an increase of 150,000 jobs. That would be a small amount if not in Norway, and the cold storage of the labor market called by the Fed is not being delivered at the moment. However, the financial markets will soon be waiting to see if the official statistics will confirm the state of the labor market.

The end of the shortened week brought a lot of data from the Czech economy. It was public Minutes from the last meeting of the NB Bank Council, from which it follows that vice-governor Jan Frait and only Tom Holub voted for a drastic rate cut. The Banking Council also sees pro-inflationary risks, and therefore intends to proceed cautiously when loosening the monetary policy. We learned the result in the morning hours purchasing managers index (PMI), which in March reached a value of 46.2 points, which is the highest value since August 2022, indicating a gradually improving condition in the manufacturing sector. In the afternoon, the Ministry of Finance published the result of the state budget for the first quarter of this year, when the deficit amounted to K 105 billion and compared to Norway, the deficit remained at the same level.

The most interesting event from a global point of view was the publication of the water estimate zero inflation in Germany, which increased by 0.6% month-on-month according to the Eurostat methodology. The average rate decreased from 2.7% to 2.3%, although the market predicted a slight decrease (2.4%). According to the methodology of the German Statistical Office, inflation even reached 2.2% in the middle of the year.

World shares did not enter the new quarter on the right foot, when the American S&P 500 index lost 0.7% and the German DAX even lost 1.1%. On the contrary, the stock market rose by 0.7%, when mainly the shares of companies from the financial sector rose. The koruna also oscillates around the EUR/CZK limit of 25.30.

Author: Martin Kron, analyst

Editor: Lenka Kalivodov, analyst
The economic research team of Raiffeisenbank as

The article is in Czech

Tags: Morning window Today inflation Eurozone ADP survey


PREV Komern banka: Today the AGM will be held, and a dividend of K82.66 per share will be approved
NEXT Elon Musk vs Australia: Fight heats up over Sydney church stabbing video on X