European stock markets generally rose slightly. The positive effect is due to the continuing process of falling inflation in the eurozone countries. Inflation in March fell to 2.4% between years, when the market expected only stagnation at Norway’s 2.6%.
US stock markets are slightly in the positive after the uncertain waters. Investors pay attention to the next five interpretive comments from the Fed and look for the results for the 1Q of the year. Several governors of the regional Fed spoke out in terms of the uncertain outcome of the late process of dollar rate cuts. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s Fedu Borstic was the most cautious, who only saw room for 1 dream, and sometimes at the end of the year. Thorn estimates are currently set for a triple dream of rates with an arrest in the middle of the year. The current market indicates the stagnation of rates at the May meeting of the central bank with a probability of 94%. The probability of a rate cut in June is only 54.2% compared to about 70% a week ago.
The initial rather negative motive turned the market in a positive direction. Bostic cited general good economic conditions with a strong labor market as the reason for the late and low rate cut. Therefore, I will focus on the results for the 1Q of the year.
Strong ADP macros supported further growth in US government bond yields. The import of klovch “plates” rose to a maximum of 4.385% last year.
The reaction of money markets today is rather confusing in the light of strong data from the US labor market, the slight comment from the Fed and the surprise of a significant drop in inflation in the euro area compared to market estimates. The euro started to strengthen against the dollar in the second half of the day.
The koruna weakened against the euro and on the second day stronger against the dollar.
Oil tested the permeability of the $90 per barrel border today. The OPEC+ group decided to keep the current production limits unchanged.
Gold matched the morning correction.
BCPP weakened today due to a strong correction of the EZ stock and persistent light pressure in the banking sector.
Prague Stock ExchangeClosing date 3/4/2024 | ||||
| Don’t call | Course | Change | Volume | Faith |
| COLT(CZG) | 618.00 | 0.65% | 2.51 million | 614.00 |
| EZ | 825.50 | -0.96% | 165.38 million | 833.50 |
| ERSTE | 1056.00 | -0.05% | 35.85 million | 1056.50 |
| GEN(NORTON) | 502.00 | -3.46% | 2.97 million | 520.00 |
| GEVORKYAN | 254.00 | 0.00% | 0.31 million | 254.00 |
| KB | 849.50 | -0.18% | 159.44 million | 851.00 |
| KOFOLA | 269.00 | -0.74% | 0.51 million | 271.00 |
| COIN | 101.00 | -0.98% | 29.27 million | 102.00 |
| PHOTON | 44.85 | -2.50% | 0.25 million | 46.00 |
| PILL | 205.00 | 1.49% | 0.26 million | 202.00 |
| P.M | 15860.00 | 0.38% | 10.54 million | 15800.00 |
| PRIMOCO | 890.00 | 0.56% | 0.43 million | 885.00 |
| VIG | 738.00 | 0.27% | 0.11 million | 736.00 |
| Subject: Stock Exchange | 407.83 million | |||
Main comments to every day at the markets and mainly at first:
12:00 p.m. – Europe slightly on the plus side, BCPP on the other hand slightly down, Eurodollar uncertain, oil holding above USD 89, gold weakening slightly
| R | EZ completed the demolition and started the first production block of the Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant |
| gold | The price of gold will rise. The US national debt also has a significant impact on growth |
| central bank | Bostic (Atlanta Fed): I only see it for one rate dream, in 4Q Central banks from the USA got into a fight with colleagues from the EU behind closed doors. You don’t want the banks to go green, that’s what the European Central Bank is doing Dalyov (San Francisco Fed) – a projection is not the same as a promise NB: The file indicated that the banking board wants to cut rates gradually (April 3, 2024) |
| macro | US – the ISM index in services fell to 51.4 b in June US – according to ADP, the private sector created 184,000 new jobs in March Eurozone – inflation fell to 2.4% in the first quarter compared to 2.6% from the norm. However, it grew by 0.8% during the month Unemployment stagnates in the euro area (April 3, 2024) Turkey’s consumer price index was not as expected. USDTRY had to change Germany – core inflation fell to 2.2% y/y, not since April 2021 na – index of purchasing behavior in services slightly above market estimates |
Vladimr Urbnek
In the field” for more than 20 years. After several years of experience from trading with valuable peppers, Vladimr Urbnek for the past 15 years, he has been devoting himself to reporting from domestic and foreign capital markets.
He considers the age to be the result of experience and ability compared to the time before the last major crisis in 2008-9.
Tags: Summary European markets growing BCPP hand red dollar continued lose signs late interest rate cuts oil testing USD gold hit USD
-
