Summary 3.4. – European and US markets are growing, BCPP, on the other hand, went into the red, the dollar continued to lose despite the signs of late interest rate cuts, oil is testing at USD 90, gold hit USD 2290

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The stock market, with below-average liquidation, went against the general trend and weakened slightly.

European stock markets generally rose slightly. The positive effect is due to the continuing process of falling inflation in the eurozone countries. Inflation in March fell to 2.4% between years, when the market expected only stagnation at Norway’s 2.6%.

US stock markets are slightly in the positive after the uncertain waters. Investors pay attention to the next five interpretive comments from the Fed and look for the results for the 1Q of the year. Several governors of the regional Fed spoke out in terms of the uncertain outcome of the late process of dollar rate cuts. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s Fedu Borstic was the most cautious, who only saw room for 1 dream, and sometimes at the end of the year. Thorn estimates are currently set for a triple dream of rates with an arrest in the middle of the year. The current market indicates the stagnation of rates at the May meeting of the central bank with a probability of 94%. The probability of a rate cut in June is only 54.2% compared to about 70% a week ago.

The initial rather negative motive turned the market in a positive direction. Bostic cited general good economic conditions with a strong labor market as the reason for the late and low rate cut. Therefore, I will focus on the results for the 1Q of the year.

Strong ADP macros supported further growth in US government bond yields. The import of klovch “plates” rose to a maximum of 4.385% last year.

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The reaction of money markets today is rather confusing in the light of strong data from the US labor market, the slight comment from the Fed and the surprise of a significant drop in inflation in the euro area compared to market estimates. The euro started to strengthen against the dollar in the second half of the day.

The koruna weakened against the euro and on the second day stronger against the dollar.

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Oil tested the permeability of the $90 per barrel border today. The OPEC+ group decided to keep the current production limits unchanged.

Gold matched the morning correction.

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BCPP weakened today due to a strong correction of the EZ stock and persistent light pressure in the banking sector.

Prague Stock Exchange

Closing date 3/4/2024


Don’t call Course Change Volume Faith
COLT(CZG) 618.00 0.65% 2.51 million 614.00
EZ 825.50 -0.96% 165.38 million 833.50
ERSTE 1056.00 -0.05% 35.85 million 1056.50
GEN(NORTON) 502.00 -3.46% 2.97 million 520.00
GEVORKYAN 254.00 0.00% 0.31 million 254.00
KB 849.50 -0.18% 159.44 million 851.00
KOFOLA 269.00 -0.74% 0.51 million 271.00
COIN 101.00 -0.98% 29.27 million 102.00
PHOTON 44.85 -2.50% 0.25 million 46.00
PILL 205.00 1.49% 0.26 million 202.00
P.M 15860.00 0.38% 10.54 million 15800.00
PRIMOCO 890.00 0.56% 0.43 million 885.00
VIG 738.00 0.27% 0.11 million 736.00
Subject: Stock Exchange 407.83 million


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Main comments to every day at the markets and mainly at first:

12:00 p.m. – Europe slightly on the plus side, BCPP on the other hand slightly down, Eurodollar uncertain, oil holding above USD 89, gold weakening slightly

R EZ completed the demolition and started the first production block of the Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant


gold The price of gold will rise. The US national debt also has a significant impact on growth
central bank Bostic (Atlanta Fed): I only see it for one rate dream, in 4Q

Central banks from the USA got into a fight with colleagues from the EU behind closed doors. You don’t want the banks to go green, that’s what the European Central Bank is doing

Dalyov (San Francisco Fed) – a projection is not the same as a promise

NB: The file indicated that the banking board wants to cut rates gradually (April 3, 2024)

macro US – the ISM index in services fell to 51.4 b in June

US – according to ADP, the private sector created 184,000 new jobs in March

Eurozone – inflation fell to 2.4% in the first quarter compared to 2.6% from the norm. However, it grew by 0.8% during the month

Unemployment stagnates in the euro area (April 3, 2024)

Turkey’s consumer price index was not as expected. USDTRY had to change

Germany – core inflation fell to 2.2% y/y, not since April 2021

na – index of purchasing behavior in services slightly above market estimates


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Vladimr Urbnek

In the field” for more than 20 years. After several years of experience from trading with valuable peppers, Vladimr Urbnek for the past 15 years, he has been devoting himself to reporting from domestic and foreign capital markets.

He considers the age to be the result of experience and ability compared to the time before the last major crisis in 2008-9.

The article is in Czech

Tags: Summary European markets growing BCPP hand red dollar continued lose signs late interest rate cuts oil testing USD gold hit USD

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