29/03/2024
reading time 3 minutes
Russia cannot defeat Ukraine, and neither can the West—and it probably will—if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin.
That the war is unwinnable because of Russian dominance is the Kremlin’s information operation, and a cursory glance at actual Russian strategy shows that it is also the only hope for success.
The Kremlin must sideline the United States, allow Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation, and then move on to Moscow’s other goals, which Russia will also seek to isolate.
The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and accept the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine.
The center of gravity of Vladimir Putin is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine and Russia itself.
Therefore, the strategy that matters most is not Moscow’s war strategy, but the Kremlin’s strategy to make us see the world as it wants us to see it, and to make decisions in a Kremlin-created alternate reality that allows Russia to win in the real world the world.
Those whose perspective coincides with that of the Kremlin are not ipso facto Russian fools. In public debate, the Kremlin conflates real feelings and even some legitimate arguments with Russia’s interests.
The Kremlin is also an equal opportunity manipulator. It focuses on the whole spectrum of those who make decisions or inform decisions. It is partially successful on all sides of the political spectrum.
Perception manipulation is one of the Kremlin’s key capabilities – now it has been unleashed in full force on the Western public as the Kremlin’s only strategy to win Ukraine. That’s not a challenge most companies can handle.
Nevertheless, the US has the power to deny Russia its only strategy for success. The US has allowed Russia to play an inordinate role in shaping US decision-making, but the US has also made many sensible decisions regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The key successes achieved by Ukraine and its partners in this war stem from strategic clarity. On the other hand, missed opportunities on the battlefield result from the West’s failure to connect basic truths with our interests quickly enough to act.
Fortunately, the US faces an easier task of overcoming the Kremlin’s manipulations than Russia in bridging the huge gap between Russia’s war aims and its capabilities. The US must increase its support for Ukraine, and it must do so in time.
The delays come at the cost of Ukrainian lives, an increased risk of failure in Ukraine, and an erosion of American dominance over Russia, giving the Kremlin time to rebuild and develop the capabilities it intends to use against the West—probably in a shorter time frame than the West estimates.
The US must defeat Russian efforts to change American will and decision-making for reasons that go beyond Ukraine.
If the U.S. is to deter, win, or help win any future war, America’s decisions must be timely and aligned with our interests, values, and fundamental truth, but above all, those decisions must be ours.
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