EU in pieces? They are so scared of Trump winning that they are thinking about nuclear weapons

Server POLITICO comes with an analysis of what Europe would look like if Donald J. Trump won the second round of the presidential election in the United States of America. The article was published by the server with the title How the second Trump presidency could tear Europe apart.

“Most European leaders hoped they would never see this moment. It’s November 7, 2024, two days after Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in the US presidential election, and the future president has already announced that he will force Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia and cede territory the Kremlin claims as its own,” writes Politico in the opening paragraph of the article.

Trump’s plan for Ukraine is already taking shape, according to people familiar with the former president’s thinking. He would like to get Zelensky to withdraw Crimea and part of Donbass in order to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war.

European leaders would be confused, not knowing what to do and how to react. “In the face of Trump’s opposition, can they give Kiev anything, as the group of leaders clustered around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron argue? Should they follow Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and welcome Trump’s initiative to end the conflict? Wouldn’t it be better to work with Washington and help shape the deal, as the German and Italian delegations keep saying? And most importantly, how can the continent’s leaders prevent a sharp turn in US foreign policy from dividing their countries?” the Politico server describes some of the questions that would be on the minds of Europe’s leaders after Trump’s election.

Overall, Donald Trump’s return to the White House would represent one of the biggest tests of transatlantic relations in post-war history and an existential risk to European unity. Tensions over future cooperation with the United States of America are dividing Europe on issues of trade policy, climate change and the defense of European territory.

“When it comes to the EU’s sense of urgency on issues such as competitiveness or defence, Trump could be for the bloc what the financial crisis was: A wake-up call to get things moving,” said Belgian Finance Minister Vincent Van Peteghem, who currently he chairs meetings of EU finance ministers to discuss more defense spending. “If elected, it would trigger a lot.”

Thus, in the event of a second Trump presidency, Europe would have to do, according to the Politico article, “what it has historically proven incapable of” – that is, decide on a joint response and stick to it. “If she doesn’t come to an agreement, it could lead to the breakup of the bloc,” predicts Politico.

However, Trump’s intentions towards the North Atlantic Alliance are not clear. People familiar with Trump’s thinking said he has focused on reducing US involvement, possibly by refusing to attend summits or for the US military to skip joint exercises.

Generally speaking, Trump would not even have to withdraw from the alliance to effectively end it. The Politico server recalled how Trump questioned compliance with NATO’s Article 5 on mutual defense in February. In any case, Article 5 does not require military support, only requiring a NATO member to “take such measures as it deems necessary to assist an ally under attack”.

Trump could simply “see fit to raise concerns with the UN Security Council and that’s it,” said Brad Bowman of the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “or issue a statement or say, ‘Hey, Putin, that’s not good.’ You should let it go.’

Red button question

Most of Europe is still dependent on the protection of the United States of America when it comes to nuclear weapons. Only Great Britain and France have their own warheads. Great Britain has about 200 and France 300, but only for national defense. Politico reports that while France has offered to discuss the role of “nuclear deterrence” in the European context in recent years, the offer has not been accepted.

Neither the French nor the British system would be a credible deterrent if the US nuclear deterrent were to fall, said von Ondarza, an expert on EU foreign policy. Moreover, it would not even be clear who would press the so-called red button in the European Union at the moment, if it had to be figured out. Would it be Emmanuel Macron? President of the European Commission or the European Council?

Fears of leaving Europe “exposed” are already fueling debates on armaments. In Germany, former Greens foreign minister Joschka Fischer has said the EU needs its own nuclear weapons, and there are voices calling for a domestic arsenal in Poland, Politico reports.

European unity as a solution, Orbán as a risk

The fate of Europe during Trump’s second presidency would depend primarily on the extent to which Europe would remain united.

“We need to show unity, as was the case under his last government,” said Alva Finn, executive director of the European Liberal Forum, a Brussels think tank. “We worked it out last time and hopefully we can do it again if we stay united as a block like we did before.”

Politico sees Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the most obvious risk to European unity. Orbán, who visited Trump at his Florida resort last month, has long been promoting some form of peace agreement for Ukraine. The Hungarian leader is also hoping for more support across the bloc following the expected rise of the far right in June’s European Parliament elections.

However, Orbán could turn out to be the least of the problems even given that “European leaders have trouble working together even in the best of times.”

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