Purdue basketball vs. Gonzaga predictions, betting odds in Sweet 16

Purdue basketball coach Matt Painter reacts to win over Utah State

The Boilermakers are heading to Detroit for the Sweet 16 after two dominating wins in Indianapolis this weekend.

Purdue basketball takes on Gonzaga in a Midwest Regional Sweet 16 matchup Friday night in Detroit. Both teams cruised through the first weekend of March Madness.

They met in the Maui Invitational during Thanksgiving week, with Purdue winning 73-63. Neither team was in a groove offensively, and Gonzaga had 0 3-pointers in the second half.

The top-seeded Boilermakers (31-4) are led by 7-4 senior center Zach Edey, who gets help from guards Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones. The No. 5 seed Bulldogs (27-7) ride a balanced attack, led by double-figure scorers Graham Ike, Anton Watson, Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard. Braden Huff and Ben Gregg are also close to double figures.

Can the Boilermakers knock off the Zags again?

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Purdue beats Gonzaga

I saw this game in Hawaii. Both teams have gotten better, but Purdue is better than Gonzaga. Graham Ike and Anton Watson vs. Zach Edey and Trey Kaufman-Renn. I think Watson and Kaufman-Renn can negate each other. Edey is better than Ike. I think the difference could be Lance Jones because Braden Smith (against) Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman (against) Fletcher Loyer, but I don’t think they have a matchup for Lance Jones. And Cam Heide is playing great off the bench. Gonzaga does not have a great bench.

Purdue beats Tennessee

I am going to stick with my pick. Purdue beat Tennessee in Hawaii, they’ll beat them again. They don’t have a matchup for Zach Edey.

Two of three pickers go with Purdue

Purdue wins if: The blueprint to success for the Boilermakers is not complicated. Exploit the size advantage Zach Edey creates down low, knocks down open 3s when the defense collapses (40.9 3PT%, 1st in NCAA), and plays strong perimeter defense (31.4% 3PT allowed, 46th in NCAA). They held the Bulldogs to 6-of-32 shooting from 3 when these two teams met at the Maui Invitational, and Edey had 25 points and 14 rebounds in a 10-point victory.

Gonzaga wins if: All seven of the Bulldogs losses this year have come in games where they shot under 30% from beyond the arc, including that dismal 18.8% showing against Purdue in Maui. They need the 3 ball to fall, plain and simple. All they can do on the defensive end is make sure no one besides Edey burns them with a big game, because he’s going to get his 20 points and 10 rebounds.

Jeff Borzello, Purdue 79-76: A rematch of Purdue’s 10-point win in November in the Maui Invitational. But Gonzaga is a very different team than it was four months ago, playing at an incredibly high level on the offensive end. The Zags thrive on points in the paint, though, and I think Zach Edey will be enough of a deterrent at one end and Purdue will make 3s at the other.

John Gasaway, Gonzaga 82-81: I’ll take the Zags, but it will require March heroics from guys like Ben Gregg and Braden Huff. Graham Ike is outstanding against any normal opponent, but Edey needs to be pulled out of the paint when Gonzaga has the ball. On D, the Bulldogs might finally be the opponent that doesn’t put Edey on the line a million times.

Myron Medcalf, Purdue 85-77: Gonzaga is now one of the best offensive teams in America and Ike (62% inside the arc) is one of the nation’s most efficient players, too. But the Bulldogs don’t have an answer for Edey and one of the nation’s top 3-point shooting teams. Utah State doubled Edey every time he touched the ball and he still had 21 points and 11 rebounds at halftime. And Purdue made 48% of its shots from beyond the arc.

Purdue 80-77: Purdue won the regular-season matchup 73-63 on Nov. 20, and the Boilermakers are 4-0 all time against the Bulldogs. This will be the most entertaining game. How does Gonzaga slow down Zach Edey – who averaged 26.5 points and 17.5 rebounds in the first two games? The Boilermakers are also the best 3-point shooting team in the country (40.9%). It’s a formula that works. Of course, the Bulldogs counter with a top-five offense that averages 85.0 points per game. Gonzaga 54% from the field and 50% from 3-point range in two tournament victories. Forwards Graham Ike (16.4 ppg), Braden Huff (9.5 ppg) and Ben Gregg (9.2 ppg) will all get their turns against Edey, and Ryan Nembhard (12.4) ranks sixth in the nation with 6.9 assists per game. This is a scary matchup for both teams, and neither team shot well from 3-point range in the first meeting. Purdue was 4 of 17 (23.5%). Gonzaga was 6 of 32 (18.8%). That could be the separator in a down-to-the-wire game.