Marquette vs. North Carolina State expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 game

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We’re about to find out in the Sweet 16 as Tyler Kolek and Marquette’s vaunted pick and roll offense meets DJ Burns and NC State’s punishing post-up attack, with Marquette tabbed as the favorite at tip.

Kolek returned from injury that sidelined him for three weeks looking as dominant as ever, posting gaudy statlines of 21/11/5 against Colorado and 18/11/6 against Western Kentucky, the first time any player had posted back-to-back 10 /10/5 lines in the NCAA Tournament since Jason Kidd did so in 1993. Against Colorado, Kolek himself scored 15 points on 15 pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions. Per Synergy, Marquette is scoring .996 points per P&R possession, including passes, which is a top-25 mark and third best of any team with at least 25 a game.

The Wolfpack, on the other hand, have had difficulty containing the pick-and-roll defensively, allowing .911 points per possession this season, tied with Colorado for 264th in the country. However, in their seven-game winning streak through the ACC and NCAA Tournament, they have tightened up the defense, and only allowed .877 PPP.

And on the other end, Burns and co. have punished opponents with their post-up game, averaging a whopping 1.144 PPP on almost 18 possessions a game during their seven-game win streak. For context, Purdue led the country in post-ups per game this season and only averaged 16.8 with significantly lower efficiency. That is to say, the Wolfpack have found new life and a way to extend the season by being the most efficient post-heavy team in the country.

This should be a very interesting battle against Marquette, as it likes to send double teams to defend the post more than almost any team, doing so 113 times this season, third-most in the country, per Synergy’s data. The Wolfpack has crushed teams doubling the post of late, averaging 1.286 PPP the past seven games and 1.167 for the season as a whole. Against Oakland in the first round, NC State scored 17 points on 12 possessions when double teamed on post ups.

This clash of styles should be quite easy on the eyes.

Marquette last made the Elite Eight in 2013. NC State is playing for its first Elite Eight appearance since 1986.

What: South Region, Sweet 16

Tip off time: 7:09 p.m. ET Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Dallas

Marquette vs. NC State odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.

Expert picks

Model projection: Marquette by 5.5, total 148.5

See all of Austin Mock’s projections for the Sweet 16

Players to watch

Marquette

• Tyler Kolek, senior guard, first-team All-Big East
• Oso Ighodaro, senior forward, second-team All-Big East

NC State

• DJ Horne, senior guard, third-team All-ACC

More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Oso Ighodaro: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)