LSU vs. Iowa rematch predictions: Spread, odds and start-time for Elite Eight game

The rematch is here: LSU vs. Iowa. angel vs. Caitlin. Mulkey vs. Blunder. (And we’ll get into how there are so many more names to care about in this matchup.) On Saturday, LSU outlasted a tough game against No. 2 UCLA, while Iowa put away No. 5 Colorado to bring us a rematch of last year’s national championship game. As of Sunday night, the odds are close to a pick ’em with a wafer-thin point spread.

Their 2023 national title clash was the most-watched women’s basketball game in history, with 9.9 million viewers. You can bet ESPN is hoping for something like that for Monday night.

Of course, many of us are litigating in group chats and other channels whether the selection committee made the right decision to put both teams in the same region — effectively ensuring that one of two of the biggest stars in women’s college basketball would not have the chance to appear in the Final Four. But today, that question pales compared to the big one: Who will emerge victorious?

We have a ton of coverage of this magnetic rivalry, some of it linked below, but what you have in front of you right now is a preview from a sports betting angle: We’ve got LSU vs. Iowa odds, picks from our experts, point total projections, players to watch and details for how to watch. But first, an excerpt from our longer preview of all the women’s Elite Eight matchups.

From our Elite Eight preview:

It’s the national title game rematch that everyone circled when the bracket was revealed on Selection Sunday, and storylines abound. But this game doesn’t have to be a referendum on the two teams’ legacies and the narratives surrounding them — it’s also an incredibly compelling basketball matchup.

LSU stifled Clark with the defense of Alexis Morris last season, but Hailey Van Lith isn’t that player. In fact, Clark ran circles around Van Lith, then with Louisville, earlier in the 2023 tournament. The Tigers have upgraded their perimeter rotation on the wings, however, as Flau’jae Johnson is a more confident and consistent scorer, and Mikaylah Williams provides instant offensive firepower. Sydney Affolter and Gabbie Marshall will have their hands full with that dynamic duo and will have to hit shots on the other end to compensate.

Both teams are smaller inside than their 2023 iterations. Iowa’s Kate Martin will have to tend to LSU’s Aneesah Morrow, and Hannah Stuelke will have the unenviable task of containing Angel Reese. Clark might find it easier to get into the lane without a traditional center protecting the paint; nevertheless, Morrow and Reese are quick and cover ground well, which will cause different difficulties for the Hawkeyes’ offense.

Iowa’s attack looked comfortable and was efficient against Colorado. The question is whether that smoothness will translate against an SEC defense that is well-versed in taking opposing teams out of rhythm. LSU can still put up points in bunches, even with a tighter rotation, so the Tigers can keep pace with the Hawkeyes no matter the style of play. Even though Clark is the best player in this game, LSU has the collective length and athleticism to make her life difficult enough. Unless she has a historic shooting night — which is well within the realm of possibility — this rematch could have the same result.

—Sabreena Merchant and Grace Raynor

How to watch LSU vs. Iowa

What: Albany 2 Region, Elite Eight

Tip off time: 7:15 p.m. ET Monday

TV: ESPN

Location: Albany, NY

You can buy tickets to any tournament game here.

LSU vs. Iowa odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live.

Expert picks and projections

Sabreena’s and Grace’s pick: LSU to win

Austin Mock’s projection: Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the chances for each team to make it through each round of the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the women’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here is our projected score:

• Projected point spread: LSU -0.5
• Projected total: 170.5
• Projected scores: LSU 85.5, Iowa 85

Players to watch

LSU

• Angel Reese, junior forward, SEC Player of the Year, first-team All-SEC, SEC all-defensive team
• Mikaylah Williams, freshman guard, SEC Freshman of the Year
• Aneesah Morrow, junior guard, first-team All-SEC
• Flau’jae Johnson, sophomore guard, second-team All-SEC

Iowa

• Caitlin Clark, senior guard, Big Ten Player of the Year, first-team All-Big Ten
• Hannah Stuelke, sophomore forward, second-team All-Big Ten
• Kate Martin, senior guard, second-team All-Big Ten

More NCAA basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Angel Reese and Flau’jae Johnson: Tom Pennington/Getty Images)