Aston very aptly described the situation surrounding arms supplies to Ukraine in the US House of Representatives. Peace with Russia will happen one day if Ukraine has a bitch.
In principle, a completely realistic article about the situation surrounding the arming of Ukraine with the approval of American aid in the House of Representatives, Aston wrote here. I quote the conclusion: It must be seen that we are one great Israel and everyone hates and despises us. By exporting democracy and teaching about human rights, we are only adding fuel to the fire. The strength of determination and self-confident attitude is something that has been forgotten in the euphoria of the birth of a world of understanding and cooperation in the last thirty years. Hopefully it will also happen to those who are still short-sightedly protesting against the war and calling for the immediate conclusion of peace. It will be closed once, but you have to approach the negotiation table with a sledgehammer in your hand. For now, we stand with our pants pulled down to mid-thighs.
The facts are inexorable. Today, the West represents about one billion people in the US, Europe, Japan and Australia. The rest of the world today makes up the so-called “Global South,” where politics ranges from Western-like democracy to dictatorship. The common feature of the “global south” is indeed resistance to the “spread of democracy” – we know the inglorious ends of Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.
As Aston points out, the aid approved by the US House of Representatives for Ukraine has a rather interesting peculiarity. The overwhelming majority of Republican congressmen voted against this aid, and as ČT showed in Událosty 21/4/2024, the congresswoman also voted against it, who was so displeased with the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition for Ukraine. In fact, about a quarter of the $60 billion is devoted to direct military support for Ukraine, the larger part goes to “rearming the American army”, even though it will allegedly be possible to send weapons to Ukraine from this part as well.
However, the hardest part is still in sight. This is the real situation at the front. If I recall President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement that American aid will enable Ukraine to win, it is a completely logical question what we should imagine by Ukraine’s victory. Conquest of all territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea? Then another logical question arises – is such a goal realistically possible?
We have behind us last year’s Ukrainian offensive, which did not bring anything fundamental to Ukraine. According to Western sources, this year, on the other hand, Russia has conquered about 400 square kilometers of territory and there is talk of a “slow systematic progress”. In the current situation, Ukraine really does not have any “sukovica” in its hands with which it could negotiate peace with Russia on its own terms. Moreover, all experts who describe the situation really objectively and are not propagandists proclaiming “the disintegration of Russia within months, a few years at the most” point out that Ukraine does not have enough troops to successfully overcome Russian fortified positions. If, in addition, both NATO and the USA exclude the deployment of their soldiers (the reason is, of course, Russian nuclear power), then the issue of “sukovic” in peace negotiations with Russia becomes not entirely clear.
There will be a presidential election in the US this year, and I also agree with Aston that portraying Donald Trump as a pro-Russian “guy” is the rant of American Democrats. Similarly, we could actually quite legitimately speak of the Democrats as “pro-Palestinian” representatives. After all, both current President Joe Biden and Donald Trump speak of their opponent as a danger to American democracy. This is just proof of the deep political division of American society. Next to Israel, Ukraine will remain the main foreign policy topic of these elections. But if these elections are dominated by domestic political issues, and the first place will be, unsurprisingly, illegal immigration to the USA, no major decisions will be made regarding possible peace talks in Ukraine. If the Russian army keeps the occupied territories to the current extent, there will be no sukovic for Ukraine and there will be no peace negotiations with sukovic. Russia’s goal will then be to conquer even more Ukrainian territory and continue to decimate Ukraine by shelling the entire territory. However, it will not be possible to restore anything substantial in such a state without the danger that Russia will not attack these targets. The longer the conflict lasts, the more Ukrainian refugees will remain in the countries where they fled from Russian aggression. It is so good, maybe for the Czech Republic and other countries where the refugees went, but it is definitely not a win for Ukraine.
The only realistic conclusion follows from the above. The West will have to re-enter the conflict sooner or later. i.e. the US, and negotiate a realistic plan with Ukraine to end the war. Conferences where the declaration of Ukraine within the borders after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 will be discussed will not bring peace to Ukraine. The Russian-Ukrainian war is actually a kind of “delayed” conflict of the disintegrated USSR, in which Ukraine joined the West, and Russia, after the chaos of the end of Mikhail Gorbachev’s rule, is now “on form” again and wants to decide on world politics like the former USSR during the Cold War. The maximalist goal of Russia is the complete destruction of Ukraine as a state in the form after the collapse of the USSR. With the support of the West, Ukraine can avoid this development. However, whether he will have such a bitch in his hands, which would force everything that Ukraine has lost, is not only in the hands of Ukraine itself.
