Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on the nuclear program, banned the development and use of atomic weapons in a fatwa at the turn of the millennium, and Tehran officially adheres to that position.
“Iran has repeatedly stated that its nuclear program serves only peaceful purposes,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said a few days ago. But the commander of the Revolutionary Guards in charge of nuclear security, Ahmad Haghtalab, had previously threatened that the country’s nuclear doctrine could change as a result of the Israeli threat.
At the same time, the country’s representatives indicate that its current attitude is primarily a matter of goodwill, since it does not lack the ability to build an atomic bomb. For example, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Ali Salehi, boasted on state television in February that Iran had crossed all the thresholds of nuclear technology.
BIS chief Michal Koudelka about celebrities supporting Palestine
BIS chief Michal Koudelka on celebrities supporting Palestine • hrc, Fameplay Live/Blesk, Vera Renovica
“Imagine what a car needs. It needs a chassis, an engine, a steering wheel, a gearbox. You ask if we made the gearbox, I say yes. Did we make the engine? Yes, but each part serves its purpose,” the Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate explained to the audience.
Advances in Uranium Enrichment
Although similar claims may be Persian propaganda, Western experts also warn against Iranian progress in this direction. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, believes that Tehran is weeks rather than months away from obtaining enough enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb. “But this does not mean that Iran has or will have a nuclear weapon in this period of time,” he emphasized, according to Deutsche Welle.
“I really think it’s more like weeks, or just units of weeks, because Iran already has the necessary technology,” Matouš Horčička from the Association for International Affairs (AMO) is also convinced. However, he notes that another question is how many weapons he would be able to create in rapid succession.
In a landmark agreement in 2015, Iran pledged not to enrich uranium to more than the 3.7 percent needed to fuel power plants for 15 years. However, after Trump’s move, he is very active in this direction. Currently, the material is enriched to sixty percent, which, according to the IAEA, is a level that is almost indistinguishable from the ninety percent, generally referred to as weapons grade.
Obtaining material for the fission reaction is the most complicated step on the way to a nuclear bomb. In its natural state, uranium ore contains less than a percent of the fissile isotope u-235, and thousands of centrifuges that rotate at supersonic speeds are needed to achieve its high proportion. Tehran has built at least two underground enrichment facilities so that they are not easily destroyed by airstrikes.
However, Iran’s ability to build and deliver a nuclear weapon is also in question. “A functional nuclear warhead requires many other things independent of the production of fissile material,” says Grossi. Estimates of how long Tehran would be able to produce a nuclear warhead and place it on a ballistic missile range from a few months to two years. In any case, Iranian ballistic missiles have an estimated range of up to five thousand kilometers, so they could hit all of Europe.
“The design challenges of placing such a device in a warhead capable of withstanding the stresses of launching a ballistic missile and returning to earth are significant. However, Iran could circumvent some of these challenges through continued development of sophisticated cruise missiles or drones,” notes Simon Henderson of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The hesitancy of the Iranian regime
At the same time, Grossi complained about the agency’s lack of access to Iran’s nuclear program, which raises doubts about its transparency. He also pointed out that the inspectors made suspicious findings, for example, they came across traces of enriched uranium in unexpected places. “When you put it all together, of course you end up with a lot of question marks,” he said, adding that the country’s intentions can only be speculated at the moment.
“The Iranian regime itself is hesitating whether to build a nuclear weapon because it does not know what kind of reaction it can expect from regional actors. And for now, he can still use it as a negotiating tool,” Horčička thinks. According to him, Tehran is not sure whether it would gain or lose more by building an atomic bomb. But part of the Revolutionary Guards is undoubtedly interested in its creation because they think it is an element of deterrence that is needed for national security, he adds.
The expert from AMO emphasized that Trump’s unilateral decision in 2018 created space for further escalation, as it damaged not only the credibility of the West, but also the credibility of the supporters of the agreement in the Iranian political scene. They promised that it would bring economic benefit to the country. After the convention collapsed, conservative currents strengthened in the country.
Other experts believe that everything will depend above all on Iran’s perception of its own strength. Iran’s current defense strategy is based on three pillars: an advanced nuclear program, ballistic missiles and allied forces in nearby countries, says country and nuclear weapons expert Sina Azodi in his analysis for the American think tank Stimpson Center.
“Without a modern air force capable of projecting its power beyond its borders, Iran increasingly relies on ballistic missiles and drones to show its muscle in the region,” he points out. According to him, among the foreign non-state actors, the most important for Tehran is the Lebanese Hezbollah.
Cat cornered
If Iran were to lose any of these elements of deterrence, it could perceive it as a weakening to which it is necessary to respond by changing the nuclear doctrine, Azodi is convinced. Such a situation could arise the moment Israel eliminates Hezbollah. Tehran may also come to the need to produce a nuclear weapon in the event of a large power imbalance in the region. For example, when the rival Saudi Arabia acquires nuclear weapons.
A direct and harsh Israeli or American attack on Iranian territory and especially on nuclear facilities could also exacerbate the situation. Although such a pre-emptive strike may seem attractive to the Jewish state, it would likely have only a short-term effect given Iran’s technological base, according to Azodi. After all, Iran itself warned some time ago that a cornered cat will start behaving differently than one that can roam freely.
So far, Israel has had a limited response to the unprecedented Iranian attack on its territory on April 13. Last Friday, it hit an air base near the city of Isfahan. With his action, he apparently wanted to demonstrate his capabilities and the possibility of attacking places connected with the nuclear program, the heart of which is Isfahan. According to some sources, the strike was supposed to be more extensive, but the Jewish state reconsidered the plans under pressure from the allies. The original plan was said to include hitting several military targets across the country. Above all, however, Washington was probably afraid of subsequent retaliatory action and a spiral of violence.
Further developments may thus very much depend on the outcome of the autumn American presidential elections, and it is not only a matter of pressure on Israel. It is not excluded that even at a time when Iran is clashing with the United States through various Shiite groups, including the Yemeni Houthis, it is simultaneously conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations with Washington about its nuclear program. The issue of sanctions on the Persian oil sector is closely related to it. If Trump returns to the White House, we can also expect a resumption of the tough American approach to Tehran.
However, Horčička draws attention to the fact that, unlike his predecessor, Biden does not threaten Iran with attacks, but he still did not achieve any tangible results. According to him, the impossibility of warming the West’s relations with Tehran is also due to the fact that the country is now a close ally of Moscow and supplies it with weapons to fight against Ukraine.
