“We cannot win the war only militarily,” declared the deputy commander of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence, General Vadym Skibickyj, in an interview with The Economist magazine, warning against further escalation of the conflict. His words reflect the serious situation in which Ukraine finds itself in connection with the Russian invasion and the expected offensive. According to a senior officer of the Ukrainian secret service, Moscow has also allocated more troops for the operation in Ukraine than NATO had anticipated – a total of about 514,000. According to Skibicky, the conquest of the Ukrainian city of Chasiv Jar is only a matter of time. It is said that “meaningful negotiations” with Moscow could come in a year at the earliest.
First of all, General Skibicky warns that conflicts like the one in Ukraine cannot be resolved by military force alone. “Even if we were able to push the Russian troops back to the border, the war would probably continue,” explains one of the top representatives of Ukrainian military intelligence. In this context, he emphasized the urgent need for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine. According to him, “meaningful negotiations” can only begin in the second half of 2025.
According to Skibitsky, the occupation of the strategic city of Časiv Jar by the Russians, which they are currently attacking, is likely. It is only a matter of time before this city falls like Avdijivka, which the Russians bombed in February. “Of course not today or tomorrow, but everything depends on our reserves and supplies,” said the deputy commander of Ukraine’s military intelligence.
According to him, the key month will be May, when, according to Skibicky, Russia will launch a massive plan to destabilize Ukraine. This plan includes military action, a disinformation campaign, and efforts to isolate Ukraine internationally. At the same time, Skibickyj warns that the situation on the battlefield is as bad as ever. “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew that April and May would be difficult for us,” says Skibickyj.
Vadym Skibickyj also predicts that Russia will first continue with its plan – to “liberate” Ukraine’s eastern regions, i.e. the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a task unchanged from 2022.
The move could be initiated either on Victory Day in Moscow on May 9 or before Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing a week later. Skibickyj warns that the speed and success of this move will determine how and where the Russians attack next. In the wider horizon, Russia could also try to acquire the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. He pointed out that the Russian army is no longer such an arrogant organization as it was in 2022. Now it acts as a “unified organism, with a clear plan and under one command”.
Skibickyj also drew attention to the numerical superiority of Russian forces, which are estimated to number up to 514,000 soldiers, which exceeds previous NATO estimates. This fact, together with the lack of modern weapons on the side of Ukraine, creates particularly unfavorable conditions for the Ukrainian defense.
Material support from Europe will be important in this context. “It will be crucial if Europe keeps Ukraine in the game,” he declared. According to him, if the neighboring states fail to provide the necessary support and increase their own defense capacities, they may themselves become the target of Russian actions over time, by which he means the prevention of the Baltics. According to him, Russia could do this in 7 days, while NATO’s reaction time is 10 days.
Tags: Ukraine win militarily warns Ukrainian intelligence general Negotiations year earliest
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