esk mra dispute again surprisingly increased by the end of the year and reached 19.4%. From a historical point of view, this is very high – in the long term, even before 2019, they collected roughly 12% of their income. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit and, as a whole, the dispute rose sharply all over the world – the state guaranteed income to households, but it was often not covered by the work and there was nowhere to put it (a large part of the service segment was out of the picture). After the end of the COVID 19 pandemic, the number of disputes started to decrease again, but in Esk, in connection with the energy crisis, it surprisingly increased again. And that at a time when the household was known to cut off income even for basic expenses (for example, food). At that time, the average wage dispute rose again, and not for a long time in neighboring Hungary and especially Poland, where the average household has practically nothing.
How is it mon and what does it mean? First of all, I have to tell you that this is an average dispute. And even though we don’t have the detailed results for the group’s loans, it seems that even the average was compared to the wave of inflation and the sharp drop in real wages in 2022 and 2023. She simply did not have a lot of money to pay for it, and for the first time, the dispute arose, especially for households with high incomes. For one thing, it seems that rich Czech households are long-term cautious, not a neighbor in the region – global uncertainty and probably also government deficits have thus led to a strikingly cautious putting money aside. Therefore, the high level of dispute thus shows the superiority of Czech politics. Especially when compared to Poland, monetary policy was secretive – although the rates did not improve (the peak at 7.0% versus 6.75%), from the perspective of a long-term low-inflation period, however, such high rates were not experienced for a long time (the last time was in 1999) .
What is ekat dl? The high rate of dispute is minimal towards 2024 and 2025 is a good start – in terms of consumption, the household will not only be helped by a rising real wage, but at least a slightly decreasing rate of dispute. The question is, how hard should the dispute go? You loan group will probably be a little less due to global uncertainty and due to the drop in annual rates. On the other hand, a striking dream rate dispute (close to the long-term average of around 12%) will hinder the level of the real-year rate. In addition, growing real income can increase the dispute rate even in the average period (which has lagged behind in disputes), and the total dispute rate may thus remain relatively high.
*** MARKETS ***
Crown
The Czech koruna is hovering around EUR/CZK 25.30, and finally, in the past week, the US dollar has pared significant gains on the front with the euro. this was also helped by the good result of the Czech GDP, which, thanks to increased consumption, became visible in contrast with neighboring Germany.
This week, the calendar of domestic events is relatively weak, and the dynamics of the Eurodollar will once again play a key role. In the middle of the week, Czech crowns helped the result of the Czech retail trade.
Eurodollar
The greenback benefited from EUR/USD falling below the support level around 1.08 and made an intraday low at 1.0775 (not since mid-nor). With the recovery of American government bonds, the currency also recovered, which currently has an exchange rate of around 1.0810. If we look at the American side of the calendar, this week we also have ADP employment, payrolls and ISM. f The Fed Powell, in particular, bet on the weakening of the American labor market, which should lead to a faster rate hike (not Waller’s camp). There is no indication that this will happen any time soon, which suggests that the sun’s strength could extend the period of the pelagic market.
The profuse Easter period in the USA in the form of a sharp increase in the index of business sentiment in industry (ISM index) has pushed the US bond yields particularly high. This was also reflected in the euro-dollar exchange rate, which visibly fell.
A shortened week will soon be released. As early as this morning, inflation data from Germany will begin to be uploaded, which together equals the entire Eurozone (aggregate results could be below the market consensus). In the afternoon, US labor market data in the form of open job positions will come into play. If the aforementioned dates are in line with those of Easter, then the Eurodollar should be pushed in a different direction.
Stocks
The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed the lowest trading day of the year, only giving up 0.6%. The technology index Nasdaq 100 fared only slightly better, ending the trading day in a slight plus. Lion according to the solid result of the index have Alphabet shares, which rose by more than 2%. A powerful gas pedal investment in Micron Technology shares, which also contributed around 5%. This time, the Bank of America analyst was asked, who could not fail to update his 12M price target, when it fell from USD 120 to USD 144. The airline Delta Air managed to make positive changes. Analyst Morgan Stanley moved the target price from $77 to $85, resulting in a bullish day for the stock.
