Today, esk statistick ad zveejn svj Finnish estimate of GDP for the last quarter of the year. Konen estimates are not subject to revision, so let’s wait for it to be confirmed that the Czech economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and, on the contrary, fell by 0.2% year-on-year. In such a case, the domestic economy would show a decrease of 0.4% for the entire calendar year 2023. This year, we expect a little improvement in connection with your household consumption. This is indicated by the results in the retail trade at the end of the year, and so out of doors among consumers according to the latest economic survey. The reason is mainly the dream inflation and cli NB, and here for a very long time the growth of real wages of Czech soldiers. On the other hand, the risk is the situation in the industry, which is faced with still weak domestic and foreign demand. The growth predictions for Germany, where Czech exports are the largest, are worrying.
From Germany, first about the status unemployment. the day of the change in trend is not even, and the market predicts that unemployment will remain at 5.9%, similar to the first two months of this year.
As in the Czech Republic and the United States of America, it will be published Finnish estimate of GDP in the last quarter of last year. Even in this case, it is expected that it will be confirmed that the American economy grew by 3.2% on an annualized basis, with the largest contribution (that is, two-tenths) of strong household consumption. Although the forecast for this year is not the same as last year, fears of a recession are likely not to be fulfilled, and there may not even be a so-called soft landing, but a so-called no landing means that the performance of the American economy will not be marked by a restrictive monetary policy Fed.
Zpt view:
Just a few minutes ago today, we learned how they developed retail sales per month of Norway in Germany. After the previous month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, this time the market predicted a growth of 0.4% compared to January. The result, however, was far from the market’s forecast, when retail sales were down 2% in January. The consumption of German households was not even at the beginning of the year.
Believe the day, only the consequences of the new one came economic survey in the Eurozone, from which the consumer door report is extremely pessimistic. There is still skepticism in the field of industry, but this time his dream has changed a little. In contrast, the situation in services is striking, when it hovers around its long-term average and is of a more positive nature, but compared to the average market in general, it has only increased minimally compared to the norm.
Stock markets had a very sleepy day, with the American S&P 500 index down 0.9% and the German DAX down 0.5%. The Prask stock market even gained 1.55%, breaking the 1,500-point threshold, which was the first time since the financial crisis in 2008. The koruna continues to oscillate around EUR/CZK 25.30.
Author: Martin Kron, analyst
Editor: Vratislav Zmi, analyst
Tags: Morning window Today finln GDP growth estimates #4.Q USA
-
