Trump has a 0.4% lead based on 128 polls.
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
A bit of background… As voters have soured on Joe Biden and Donald Trump over the past four years, many have wondered whether third-party candidates will run stronger than in previous elections. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign introduces a compelling three-way contest against incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. This unique configuration tests the waters of American political allegiance, as voters consider a broader spectrum of options for the country’s leadership, similar to in 2016.
| Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17 – 19 | 1,047 RV | Marist College Poll | +5 Biden | |
| Apr 17 – 18 | 1,308 RV | Emerson College Poll… | +4 Trump | |
| Apr 15 – 17 | 1,357 RV | Economist/YouGov | TIE | |
| Apr 13 – 17 | 1,000 RV | NBC News/Hart Resear… | +2 Biden | |
| Apr 11 – 17 | 1,000 LV | McLaughlin & Associa… | +2 Trump | |
| Apr 13 – 15 | 1,020 LV | Echelon Insights | +1 Biden | |
| Apr 8 – 12 | 1,059 RV | New York Times/Siena… | +2 Biden | |
| Apr 10 – 11 | 1,500 LV | Cygnal | +2 Trump | |
| Mar 25 – Apr 11 | 1,083 LV | Activote | +3 Trump | |
| Apr 7 – 10 | 1,582 RV | Economist/YouGov | +1 Trump |
The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight’s Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, ” The Apprentice.” His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.
Joe Biden is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the 46th President of the United States. Before his presidency, he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017. Prior to that, he represented the state of Delaware in the US Senate, holding that seat from 1973 to 2009. Biden’s extensive political career has focused on issues such as foreign policy, criminal justice, and civil rights.
RFK Jr., or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is an American environmental lawyer and activist. As the son of Robert F. Kennedy, former US Attorney General and Senator from New York, and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy, he has a deep-seated connection to American politics. However, he has primarily focused his career on environmental advocacy, co-founding the Waterkeeper Alliance, an organization dedicated to clean water. He has often stirred controversy, particularly with his vocal skepticism towards vaccines.
